Business cycle dating in europe
The policy response to these various challenges required, and still requires, a proper identification of the business cycle.
The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve's index of industrial production IP.
Business cycle chronologies offer reference points for empirical studies used as benchmarks for business cycle and recession theory.
A quasi-official chronology exists for the US economy, but not for most European countries, including Germany.
Annual growth rates for GDP and trade were filtered using the Hodrick-Prescott method and the results were correlated through the Pearson approach to obtain the degree of similarity between countries with respect to their economic fluctuations.
The significance of this study resides in the highlighting of the business cycle synchronization by means of the trade channel for the most influential economic powers of the world.
We are well aware of the potential shortcomings of the H-P filter particularly its sensitivity to end points.
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This time the Committee determined that a trough in economic activity occurred in the second quarter of Therefore, given the clear trough of industrial production in Aprilthe Committee has decided to declare this month to be the end of the recession.
Our objective is to compare the business cycle in these economies, particularly the current cycle.